Rebuild? Run it back? Draft Bronnie? What’s next for the Dubs?
Its Over
The End of an Era
Time to face the facts, We're Old
Klay is done, Draymond is insane, Wiggins is wooden, and Steph is slowing down at least a little
Warriors should never have left Oakland
Let's draft Bronnie in the first round and get on our knees and plead for LeBron to take his talents to South Beach (in SF)
We can still do this!
It's been a whirlwind of emotions and I'm still processing. Maybe by not writing this more immediately after the collapse of such a weird season, I've thought I could keep the season alive. Watching the first round of the playoffs has also been clarifying--seeing what works, what fails. That's made me rethink the Warriors in a more pessimistic position for next year. All the teams that look like them have lost. Those teams have been, in a word, old. In more words, the teams with generational superstars trending towards the end of their careers seem no longer able to dominate. The young teams that did dominate will all have every reason to be better next year. It seems obvious that the end of the Warriors is here.
And yet...
This past year, the Warriors were the worst almost-great team I've ever seen. Or is it that the Warriors are the greatest mediocre team I've ever seen? Or is it that they are so bad that other teams, out of deference to their reputation, let the Warriors consistently get double digit leaves before routinely crushing them in the end?
The Warriors were definitely not boring this year. They were mediocre only in the sense that if you combine being blown out by the Celtics by 50 and beating the Celtics with a patented Steph Curry 30 footer and you end up in the middle. So does taking 20+ point leads against the Nuggets/Clippers/Thunder/Kings and losing those games anyway.
“Draymond is partly responsible for 4 Warriors championships and single-handedly responsible for at least 2 defeats”
Sometimes the Warriors played elite defense and were humming on offense. Young players like Jonathan Kuminga (sometimes) dominated with his athleticism and strength. Andrew Wiggins (sometimes) appeared to be finding himself just before it was too late. Klay was (sometimes) reincarnated as late-career Ray Allen. Draymond is partly responsible for 4 Warriors championships and single-handedly responsible for at least 2 defeats, and likely more; this year was the same, winning some games with will and losing others with distractions. Steph, of course, was Steph. But, Steph, like Draymond and Klay, was also maddeningly sloppy. All three "veterans with championship pedigree" made so many unforced mistakes at the end of so many games that not even rookies make.
We have to face the fact that Klay is not a smart player. He's just not. He will jack up what he thinks is an open shot no matter how dumb, how hot someone else is, how cold he is, how many seconds are still on the clock, where he is on the court, who is guarding him, whether they are up 3 with 5 seconds left and all we have to do is hold the ball and he is standing 10 feet behind half court and is being guarded by Rudy Goebert and four of his teammates.
Steph isn't that smart either. How many times does he pass to no one, dribble into double teams,, and not be in the correct defensive assignment? Draymond is the worst shooter of open layups of all-time. No hyperbole! None!
A hundred times this year, I declared to myself that the Dubs had to trade Klay and Draymond. (I will also continue to declare to the void of the deep internet that the Warriors will regret drafting Podziemski because no matter how good a story he is (and he was), they totally fucked up by not taking Cam Whitmore. Ceilings are ceilings, and Podziemski is 9-foot basement with a skylight while Whitmore's is ... a lot higher.)
The Warriors have won 4 titles, and were the best team in the NBA two more years. Like Jordan did to the Knicks and Shaq and Kobe did to the Trailblazers and Kings, the Warriors ruined teams otherwise destined to multiple titles--the Clippers, the Thunder, the Rockets, the Cavaliers, and still to be determined on the Celtics. This isn't going to happen again.
But the more I think about this, the more I think the best, and maybe only, option is to run it back. First, the Warriors aren't trading Curry. Not now or ever. Which means until he retires, they aren't going to bottom out. And every half-realistic trade option just isn't great. You are counting on Kuminga getting a LOT of value. And the options are still likely Zach Levine as opposed to Kevin Durant. Trading Wiggins seems like a good idea, but isn't he the best player you could get for Andrew Wiggins? An athletic, young, 3 and D guy at a good contract? Draymond is another guy like that. You aren't getting a guy as good as Draymond in return. If you let Klay go, you aren't getting Trey Young or Damian Lillard in his place, and even if you did, do either move the needle? They don't have Ant, Luka, Shai, Joker, Ja, or Zion and they aren't going to find one of them by trade. Their only hope is to find another Maxey late in the draft.
There are great additions out there that can be had within their existing structure. PJ Washington this year was a cheap under the radar addition for the Mavs that transformed their team from play-in to top tier. The Knicks find these guys all the time. The Celtics found Derrick White. A lesser known athletic defender and a reliable shooter would go a long way with this existing squad.
The reality is that:
This is still a good team with upside to be a team that can challenge anyone
There aren't realistic roads to trading for a great team
Even if they simply duplicate this year, it's more entertaining than most teams.
My friends who are Knicks fans right now are ecstatic, and they don't think they have any chance of winning a championship. If I told you that this team as currently founded would finish next year with an exciting first round victory over the Grizzlies, maybe with a 40 piece from Steph in game 7, would you take it? I would. Run it back. Or draft Bronnie and trade Dario Saric for LeBron. They'd totally do that deal.
