Building the Future
First Round Picks, Championship Windows, and the Luka-Kyrie Mavericks
In the 2022 NBA Playoffs the Dallas Mavericks were on a Cinderella run. In a playoff run where they knocked off the Jazz in the first round and made a series comeback against the Suns in epic fashion, and saw Jalen Brunson start to come into his own as a rising star, the Mavericks started to think about what could be possible both now and in the future under the leadership of a 23 year old Luka Dončić. Then the Mavericks came up against the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. In game 2, Steph Curry started to put the Mavericks’ season to bed with his famous Night-Night celebration. In game 3, Andrew Wiggins buried Dončić in the rim. Two games later the Mavericks season would be over. Six games after that the Warriors would be champions. Weeks later Jalen Brunson would be a New York Knick. And months later the Mavericks would suffer an epic collapse in the Western Conference. With the new expectations for Dončić and the Mavericks being the Western Conference Finals, they seemed to be set on moving in the wrong direction.
On February 11, 2023, sitting at fourth place in Western Conference, the Dallas Mavericks faced off against the third place Sacramento Kings in a game that would vault them ahead of the Kings in the standings. It was the second night of a back-to-back against the Kings, and the end of a five game west coast road trip for the Mavs. It was also the first time Mavs fans would get to see superstars Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving take the floor together as teammates.
Six days earlier, the Mavericks traded Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a 2029 first round pick, and two second round picks in 2027 and 2029 to the Brooklyn Nets for Kyrie Irving. For Brooklyn it was the second in a trio of rebuilding moves in an effort to move on from the failed Big 3 of Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant. For Dallas it was yet another blockbuster trade in an effort to pair Dončić with a second star that could make them championship contenders.
Immediately after the trade, the Mavericks went on a 3 game win streak, including 2 games with Irving in the line up, to inch up the standings, and give themselves a chance to take the third spot from the Kings ahead of the All-Star break. Dončić missed each of those three games with a heel injury.
So, coming into that February 11th game against the Kings, with so much on the line, and a win streak at their back, there was high excitement and expectations on what the start of the Luka-Kyrie era would be for Dallas. Over the next 48 minutes, and the next 25 games, the excitement and expectations would turn into letdowns and lingering questions, as the Mavericks lost that game to the Kings in overtime, 133-128, and went on 7-18 to finish the season, falling from 4th to 11th place in the Western Conference standings.
ESPN gave the Gafford trade a C- minus grade, while the Washington trade received a D grade...What national NBA analysts and media personalities have neglected are the contract situations of the players Dallas has acquired in order to compete, and where they are in their careers.
While Dončić and Irving dominated the game — combining for 55 points on 54% shooting, 16 rebounds, and 12 assists — the problems facing the new roster construction were already on display: defense and rebounding. No true perimeter or interior defense allowed Kings stars De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis to get whatever shots and playmaking opportunities they wanted — combining for 58 points on 63% shooting. The Mavericks got out rebounded 50 to 43, giving up 11 offensive rebounds for 20 second chance points.
The Mavericks would go on to fall from 23rd in the league in rebound per game, to dead last following the trade deadline for the 2022-2023 season. They would also finish the season ranked 27th in the NBA in defensive rating. Dončić and Irving played 16 total games together and post a 5-11 record in those games, and the Mavericks would spend the majority of the season after the All-Star break battling for a play-in spot. Until they didn’t.
Heading into the last two games of the 2022-2023 season the Mavericks were in the midst of a 2-8 tailspin in the homestretch of the campaign, they were sitting at 11th place in the West, and a game out of the play-in behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. To make the play-in they needed to win back-to-back games against the Bulls and the Spurs, and then have the Thunder lose one of their remaining two games. On the flip side, if the Mavericks lost both games, the odds of them keeping their 2023 first round pick — a top 10 protected pick owed to the New York Knicks — skyrocketed. The organization faced a dilemma: tank, get 11th place, and keep their top 10 pick, or compete, get 11th place, and give the number 11 pick to the Knicks. To the clear frustration of their franchise superstar, the Mavericks chose to tank (as Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd seemingly mistakenly admitted).
The Mavericks would go on to secure the number 10 pick in the 2023 NBA draft. On draft night they would trade the number 10 pick and Davis Bertans to the Thunder for the number 12 pick, and draft 19-year-old Duke center Dereck Lively to address their rebounding and rim protecting needs. The Mavericks would then use cap space freed up from trading Bertans to sign three players they hoped would address their perimeter defensive needs: Grant Williams, Derrick Jones Jr., and former top 5 pick turned Euroleague star, Dante Exum. To sign Grant Williams the Mavericks had to execute a sign-and-trade that saw them send Reggie Bullock and an unprotected 2030 first-round pick swap to the San Antonio Spurs, and a 2025 second round pick and a 2030 second round pick swap to the Boston Celtics.
Despite the shame of tanking with two generational superstar talents on their roster, and the steep cost of draft picks, the moves for Irving, Lively, Williams, Jones Jr., and Exum paid early dividends in the 2023-2024 season. During the first 25 games of the season the line-up of Dončić, Irving, Exum, Jones Jr., and Lively posted a top-5 net rating in the league, and the Mavericks were 16-9, good enough for 4th place in the Western Conference. Then the injury bug set in — before the trade deadline, regular starters for the Mavericks missed a total of 60 games: Irving (22), Lively (18), Luka (8), Williams (6), Jones Jr. (6) — forcing Kidd to cobble together line-ups, and Luka to carry a short handed roster to a 30-23 record, good enough for 7th place in the West, ahead of the trade deadline (before the trade deadline the Mavericks used 28 different starting line-ups in 53 games, which was third most in the league behind the Memphis Grizzlies and the Detroit Pistons, two lottery bound teams). The most encouraging record statistic was that the trio of Dončić, Irving, and Lively (the reason the Mavericks tanked) seemed to be paying off, as the Mavericks were 11-7 in games where they played together through the first 53 games of the 2023-2024 campaign.
When Dončić, Irving, Jones Jr., Washington, and Gafford started together, the Mavs are 15-1.
But for a team one season removed from a conference final appearance, with a 25 year old MVP and a 32 year old second star, 7th place is far below expectations. And as much as their defense and rebounding had improved, the Mavericks still needed a true back-up center and a two-way wing to be considered legitimate contender. And in just 53 games it had become apparent that Grant Williams wasn’t fitting in with the Mavericks’ roster. So Mavericks’ general manager Nico Harrison got busy at the trade deadline in a effort to satisfy those two glaring needs.
And he did just that. The Mavericks traded for a back-up big in Daniel Gafford, and a two-way wing in PJ Washington. But again, the price was steep, as the Mavericks sent a 2024 first round pick along with Richaun Holmes to the Wizards, and a 2027 first round pick along with Grant Williams and Seth Curry to the Hornets. So, in order to acquire Irving, Gafford, and Washington, the Mavericks had to trade away significant draft capital over the next seven season that included 3 first round picks, 4 second round picks, and a first round pick swap.
The immediate reaction to these two major acquisitions by the national NBA media was underwhelming to say the least. ESPN gave the Gafford trade a C- minus grade, while the Washington trade received a D grade. Bleacher Report gave the trades a B- and D+, respectively. The reason for the low grades and negative reactions from the NBA national media? The Mavericks leveraged too much of their future while not making their team good enough to be in contention for a title. The consensus was that the Mavericks sacrificed their long term future to battle for the 6th or 7th seed and a first round exit in 2024. The subtext of their analysis was that this would lead Luka to leave the team when his contract is up and the Mavericks would be stuck at the bottom of the Western Conference standings with no way out for the next decade.
The Mavericks quickly set out to proving the media naysayers wrong. They closed the season with a 20-9 record following the trade deadline. And once Kidd figured out his rotations with a healthy roster it appeared that the Mavericks had one of the best line ups in the league, going 15-1 in games where Dončić, Irving, Jones Jr., Washington, and Gafford started together (the best win percentage of any starting 5 in the NBA this season with at least 15 starts together). The Mavericks finished with 50 wins, good enough for 5th place in the Western Conference, and a first round playoff match up with the Los Angeles Clippers.
Now, after four games, the series against the Clippers is tied 2-2, and questions about the Mavericks future versus their present have started to resurface. Ahead of game 4, Harrison was asked what a first round exit would mean for the future of the organization and his reflection on the moves made at the trade deadline (again the subtext pointing to a disgruntled star in Dončić). Harrison’s response was that, “It wasn't really about winning right now. It was just about continuing to build it. It's like every step is, how do we continue to get better? And we're not built for just right now; we're built for the next three playoff runs.”
Harrison is right. What national NBA analysts and media personalities have neglected are the contract situations of the players Dallas has acquired in order to compete, and where they are in their careers. Dončić is 25 with 3 years left on his contract, Irving is 32 with 2 years left, Gafford is 25 with 2 years left, Washington is 25 with 2 years left, Lively is 20 with 3 years left until he is a restricted free agent, and sixth man Josh Green is 23 who starts his 3 year rookie extension next season. This team is locked in for the next two season, and outside of Irving they are young and entering their primes. Furthermore, if it becomes clear that this team really does not work a year from now, Harrison still has the option to detonate the entire roster. The Mavericks could turn Dončić, Irving, Washington, Lively, Green, and Gafford into 15 first round picks and/or swaps in short order. Dončić alone could fetch 4 first round picks and 3 swaps. Neglecting the trade value these players carry when discussing the Mavericks future is lazy analysis. Harrison has constructed a roster that is ready to compete for the next three seasons, but that can be flipped for draft capital if necessary.
Anything short of a championship will always be a disappointment when a team has a generational superstar like Dončić. But even if the Mavericks do get bounced from the playoffs this year in the first or second round, they get to go into next season with a team fully intact that just went 15-1 down the stretch when healthy. For the first time since beating the Suns in game 7 in the 2022 playoffs, the Mavericks finally look like a team positioned to make another run at the Western Conference Finals and a real shot at the Larry O’Brien trophy.
