The Mavs are Definitely Winning
The Dallas Mavericks are playing in the third NBA Finals in franchise history. And while they face a tall order, tipping off opposite a juggernaut Boston Celtics, who posted the best record in the NBA this season, I believe Dallas will win the series due to four key factors: defense, high flying rim runners, avenging losses, and the clutch play of Luka and Kyrie. Okay last night did not go great, but I am still confident they have this.
The Mavericks came into the postseason as one of the hottest teams in basketball, going 16-4 the last quarter of the season, and posted one of the best defensive ratings in the league after the All-Star break to climb 7th to 5th in the West and avoid the play-in tournament. But despite all of that the Maverick defense continued to be called into question throughout the playoffs, even while they have posted the 5th best defensive rating of all 20 teams that played in the postseason. Jason Kidd has been impressive in his defensive schemes on superstars throughout the Mavericks postseason matchups, corralling Paul George, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Anthony Edwards into baseline traps with backside rotations. Beyond the schemes, the individual on-ball defense of Derrick Jones Jr, PJ Washington, and even Luka Doncic (leading all players with 28 steals in the playoffs) has been outstanding, and so has the rim protection of Daniel Gafford (leading all players with 30 blocks in the playoffs) and Dereck Lively II. The Maverick’s ability to switch on the perimeter and keep a rim protector on the floor at all times is not something the Celtics have seen this postseason.
The Mavericks also enter the Finals with one of the most dangerous rim attack offenses we have ever seen in the playoffs. Traditionally, Luka Doncic led Maverick teams shoot a large amount of spot up threes, and have usually been outscored in the paint. However, flanked by Jones, Jr., Lively, Washington, and Gafford, the Mavericks lead the NBA in lob dunks in the playoffs with 54. The next closest team is Denver with 9. The Celtics have 6. With lob threats that are also high level spot up shooters, that gives elite playmakers Doncic and Kyrie Irving more options and opportunities when they create off the dribble. Guarding Doncic and Irving pick-and-rolls consistently and effectively is one of the hardest tasks for any team defensively in these playoffs.
Luka and Kyrie have been two of the best players in the clutch this year in both the regular season and postseason
The Mavericks have yet to lose back-to-back games in these playoffs. They also have yet to lose back-to-back games when Doncic, Irving, Jones, Jr., Washington, and Gafford start together this season (they boast a record of 27-6 as a starting unit in the regular season and playoffs combined). Doncic averages 34.2 points per game following a loss in the playoffs, the highest in NBA history. Doncic has an 11-6 record in games after a playoff loss, including 5-0 this season. The bottom line is, this Mavericks line up is really good at winning, and they are led by one of the best players at avenging losses in the playoffs in Luka Doncic. If the Celtics were to win the series, they will most likely be doing so in a Game 7. And will have to beat this Mavericks team 4 times in 7 games, something all other teams have only accomplished 6 times in 33 games.
In the first four games of the Timberwolves series the Mavericks were losing at the five minute mark (“clutch minutes”). The Mavericks went 3-1 in those games, and won the clutch minutes with a plus/minus of +14. In those 20 total clutch minutes Luka and Kyrie combined for 31 points on 50/44/75 shooting, 10 rebounds, 7 assists, and only 3 turnovers. Luka and Kyrie have been two of the best players in the clutch this year in both the regular season and postseason. If the Celtics are going to win games they will need to be up convincingly before the five minute mark in the fourth quarter, because if the game is within 5 points with five minutes left in the game, it’s advantage: Mavericks.
Since opening day in October, the Celtics have had arguably the best constructed roster from start to finish this season. Because of that, they won a lot of regular season games. The most regular season games. The Dallas Mavericks were constructed on-the-go this season, but more so than the Celtics. While the Celtics were built for winning the regular season,, the Mavericks were built for winning in the playoffs.
Prediction: Mavs in 6.
