Chet Holgrem, Cheeseburgers, & The NBA Playoffs…
Boston is on top of the world. The Nuggets are an offensive juggernaut. Both Los Angeles teams will go only as far as their stars can carry them. Victor Wembanyama might be an unstoppable force next year. The Sixers are boom or bust. No one wants to play the Heat. The Bucks might be looking for a new coach if they don’t win it all.
For all of the turnover we see in the league from year to year, for all of the time Adam Silver has spent turning the Association into The NeverEndingSeriouslyThisGoesOnForrver Story, last year’s opening paragraph and this year’s are identical. (We’ll petition the Board of Directors to slap a Brook Lopez wig on the Larry O’Brien Trophy this year to tell it apart from the last one.)
Still, there are a few differences in this year’s field—let’s take a look at them to see what’s new, what’s newish, and what will really matter when we get to June.
IN: Indiana & Orlando & Dallas
OUT: Brooklyn & Toronto & Memphis
This is mostly shuffling around the first- and second-round fodder in the East. (Shoutout to Atlanta and Chicago for making the play-in games again—both cities are vying with Dayton to become permanent hosts to the First Four.) The Pacers and Magic are the proverbial One Year Away teams; expect both to be in the top half of the East for years to come once the Knicks and Cavs remember that they’re the Knicks and Cavs.
Dallas could be feisty in the West, but only if Mark Cuban’s final proposal to turn the playoffs into a single-elimination tournament comes to pass. One of the great what-ifs of the last decade is imagining Luka getting recruited to Gonzaga and going on a Kemba Walker-like run through March. If anyone could catch fire for two months instead of three weekends, though, this is your best bet.
Minny and OKC are new blood at the top
Last year Minnesota and Oklahoma City were fighting to make the play-in; this year they’re battling the defending champs for the top seed in the West. The T-Wolves are already in Last Dance mode (thanks, A-Rod). Will Anthony Edwards be able to win anything up North, or has he learned his lesson from KG (much earlier in his career, thankfully) that it’s time to get out as soon as humanly possible?
Meanwhile, the Thunder look like they’re set for a long stay at the head of the table. Once Chet Holmgren gets a few more cheeseburgers in him, he’ll be ready to battle Rudy and the Joker for years to come. That’s the nice way of saying it’s not their time. Yet.
How good is Boston?*
I ask only because we might not know until the Finals. Given the season-long choppiness due to injury and coaching upheaval, we haven’t seen anything like a true opponent for the Celtics in the East. The Sixers are lurking if Joel Embiid is clicking with his play and not with his knees, and Jimmy Butler is always ready to break out his Jason mask to start tormenting Boston this time of year. We’re ready to see just how much the upgrade from Marcus Smart to Jrue Holiday is—we know what we’re getting (for better or worse) from Los Dos Jays, but Jrue’s defensive intensity should be the difference-maker this year.
Will Denver miss Jeff Green and Bruce Brown?
Short answer: no. Long answer: nooooooooooo. The Denver core has been at this long enough to know what needs to be done, and if they can get juuuust enough from their bench, they’ll be fine.
The pick:
Denver over Boston in 6
+++
*Mark’s “editor” note: Look, man. I don’t think the C’s can beat Denver unless Tatum levels up. Drastically. Coffee is for closers. The KG/Truth Ubuntu Celtics was my favorite sports team ever. They had closers. This team? Not so much as of yet. Lotta missed layups and gesturing at the refs as the last seconds of the game dissappear. As much as I thought Coach Mazz was just a placeholder for Coach Cassell, he really crushed this season. I like my coaches weird (CHECK!) and my start player to be a serial killer (we’ll see). It is possible that these Celtics are just too well adjusted to win a ring. Fingers crossed. I’m brewing up some Dunkin’s.
